Is Winning the $12 Million Toto Prize Worth It? Analyzing Toto Bet Type and Cost

Every Singaporean dreams of winning the TOTO. The Lunar New Year brings the highly anticipated HONG BAO DRAW, organized by Singapore Pools, where lucky participants have a chance to become millionaires.

Toto Hong Bao Draw 2023
Source: Drwealth

It’s time to start seeking inspiration for the 6 numbers that could bring you luck in the TOTO draw.

This Lunar New Year, we have a $12 Million Hong Bao Draw happening on 3 February 2023, at 9.30pm.

The draw will happen at Singapore Pools Building, 210 Middle Road.

Toto Hong Bao Draw 2023
Source: Facebook| Awesome Singapore

I personally “invest” in TOTO every year for the Hong Bao Draw just to try my luck a little. While this “investment plan” has yet to generate any returns…

I stay hopeful that it shall one day, make my yearly investment of $10 worthwhile. Wish me luck!

TL;DR: We Wanted to Hack the TOTO With Math… And Here’s What We Found Out

The following result is tabulated using the results from Hong Bao Draw 2022 and Hong Bao Draw 2021.

Take note that there were 8 winners in the year 2022, hence the Group 1 prize was split. Each winner received $2,427,114.

Toto Hong Bao Draw 2023

  • To have a 100% chance of winning the TOTO Jackpot, you will need to buy 13,983,816 Ordinary TOTO tickets which will cost you $13,983,816
  • You will need at least 54 ordinary tickets to at least win something
  • I have a 4 times higher chance of spotting a UFO today than striking Jackpot with 1 TOTO ticket

If you’re not planning to buy TOTO, then at least put your money in a high-interest savings account.

Don’t blur blur and leave your money in a regular savings account which only gives you 0.05% interest…

TOTO Results of Hong Bao Draw 2023 – Winning Numbers and Additional Numbers

Here is the Hong Bao Draw result on 3 February 2023!

Details on Singapore Pools $12 Million Hong Bao Draw

Toto Hong Bao Draw 2023

Chinese New Year Hong bao (Ang Bao) TOTO Draw is a Singaporean “tradition” that we look forward to every Chinese New Year, where we have the Hong Bao Draw which gives out really high price money.

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Talk about the real Singapore Dream, here it is!

Here are the details of the Singapore Pools Hong Bao Draw 2023:

  • Prize Money: $12 Million
  • Draw date: 3 February 2023, 9.30pm (Friday)
  • Location of the draw: Singapore Pools Building, 210 Middle Road

What Are the Packages Available for This Singapore Pools Hong Bao Draw 2023?

This time around, there will be $10 and $20 packs available.

If you are unsure of terms such as “Quick Pick System 7” and “Quick Pick Ordinary”, the rest of the article will be able to help you out!

  • $10 and $20 packs are available from Monday, 30 January 2023, at 6.10pm.

All Singapore Pool branches will also be extending their operating hours to 9pm on 3 February 2023.

TOTO Singaporean’s Guide on How to Play TOTO

In the game of TOTO, one has to purchase a set of 6 numbers, selected from 1 to 49.

During the draw, 6 numbers plus an additional number will be drawn. These will form the set of winning numbers. In order to win, you need to have at least three numbers that match the winning numbers.

And before you forget, you will need to know that 54% of sales in each draw will be added to the prize pool.

Types of Singapore Pools TOTO Bet and the Cost of Each Type of Bet

If you are a total ‘NOOB’ when it comes to TOTO, we compiled it here for you to refer to when you take that leap of faith at any Singapore Pools outlet.

Toto typically takes place every Monday and Thursday at 6.30pm and special draws such as the Hong Bao draw or cascade draw will take place at 9.30pm.

Payouts of TOTO Prize

Here’s what the payout will look like should you win any of the categories.

For all the math gurus out there, Singapore Pools has carved out tables on the winning prizes based on different permutations and your betting type.

Toto Hong Bao Draw 2023
Source: Singapore Pools

Toto Hong Bao Draw 2023
Source: Singapore Pools

Toto Hong Bao Draw 2023
Source: Singapore Pools

In cases where there are multiple winners from Group 1 to 4 categories, prizes are divided equally among all winners of the respective groups. The prizes for Groups 5 to 7 are fixed.

Still wondering how much you’ll be getting?

You can use a Toto-winning prize calculator by Singapore Pools to calculate your winnings.

Snowballing and Cascading Draw

As the name goes, the prize money snowballs when there is no winner in the Group 1, 2, 3, or 4 categories, and will be added to the prize money within the same group of the next draw.

The prize money for Groups 2, 3, and 4 will snowball until it’s won, whereas Group 1 prize money (Jackpot) snowballs only up to the 4th draw, which leads to the Cascade Draw.

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If there is no Group 1 Prize winner at the end of four consecutive draws, the final jackpot amount (i.e. 38% of the fourth draw’s prize pool plus snowballed amount from the three preceding draws) cascades, and it will be paid to the next prize group with the winner(s) and shared equally.

What Is My Chance of Winning TOTO?

“有买有希望” (there’s hope only if you buy) is what we hear punters say all the time, especially after placing bets every week.

Statistically, there are 13,983,816 ways of choosing 6 numbers from 49 numbers but there is only one correct combination.

But, we all know that it’s not really easy to win when we look at the probabilities:

Probability of Winning TOTO
Source: Interactive Mathematics

This means we have to buy almost 14 million tickets (at a cost of $14 million) before we can confidently say we will probably win the top prize…

Source: Interactive Mathematics

How Much Do You Need to Spend to at Least Win Any Prize?

To calculate the probability of winning at least some money from the prize pool, we sum up all the above-mentioned probabilities to derive 0.0186. Which works out to be about 1 in 53.76.

This means that you would need to fork out $53.76, about 54 TOTO tickets to at least win some money.


Sounds Like a Good Deal? Think again.

  • For Group 5, Group 6, and Group 7, the payout is $50, $25, and $10 respectively.
  • Hence, winning any of the groups will result in you losing money given that the cost price is $53.76.
  • Only by winning at least a Group 4 will the “investment” makes economic sense.

How Much to Win at Least a Group 4 Then?

It’s almost impossible to calculate the actual value because we won’t be able to predict the overall sales and how many winners there will be in each category.

If you recall, the prize money in Groups 1, 2, 3 & 4 will be split in the event that there are multiple winners for each group, and 54% of the sales in the draw will be added to the prize pool.

Assuming $12 million is actually 38% of the total prize pool (because this has happened before in 2020), this will bring us to a total prize pool is $31,578,947.

With that, this is what we derived for you to at least win a Group 4 prize:

The Ultimate Chart You Need to Illustrate the Never-Ending Pursuit of Quick Wealth (Based on 2021 & 2022’s Result)

Huat ah!

The above chart shows that in order for a sure win, one needs to put in so much more money to compensate for the risks and the odds.

In order for one person to win at least a Group 2, he needs to put in at least $2 million. The returns? A possible chance of winning is $84,210.50.

Data is based on Hong Bao Draw 2022’s statistics:

Source: Singapore Pools

To illustrate the low probability of winning a TOTO, we lay out the odds of some life events for reference:

  • Odds of spotting a UFO today: 1/3,000,000
  • Odds of a Royal Flush in poker on the first 5 cards: 1/649,740
  • Odds of winning an Olympic gold medal: 1/662,000
  • Odds of dating a supermodel: 1/88,000

This means that I have a 4 times higher chance of spotting a UFO today than striking Jackpot with my TOTO ticket.

Extra Reading: Are TOTO winnings subjected to tax?

Here’s a fun fact IF you win the Jackpot this Hong Bao Draw (BIG IF)…

As winnings from betting is a windfall and does not count as income, it is therefore NOT subject to Income Tax.

Heng ah…

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toto bet type and cost

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